But Clinton
favored on temperament and expected by more to win election
MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leads
Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton among Tennessee voters, the latest MTSU
Poll shows.
In
a four-way race of likely voters in Tennessee, if the election were held today:
·
Trump
(Republican) — 48 percent
·
Clinton
(Democrat) — 36 percent
·
Gary Johnson
(Libertarian Party) — 5 percent
·
Jill Stein
(Green Party) — 1 percent
·
Undecided/leaning
Trump — 2 percent
·
Undecided/leaning
Clinton — 2 percent
The
remainder of likely voters say they will vote for someone else, that they don’t
know whom they will vote for or lean toward, or give no answer.
The
MTSU Poll was conducted between Sept. 28 and Oct. 2, 2016, following the first
presidential candidate debate featuring Clinton and Trump. Registered voters in
Tennessee were surveyed via random telephone calls to landline and mobile
phones. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.
Likely
voters were identified from among those participants by their responses to a
series of questions about past voting behavior and intention of voting in the
November general election. The poll captured responses from 600 registered
voters, from whom 472 (79 percent) were identified as likely voters.
When
likely voters were asked to choose only between Clinton and Trump, the outcome
was nearly identical to results of the four-way contest, with 50 percent saying
they would vote for Trump, and 40 percent saying they would vote for Clinton.
“Barely
half of Tennessee’s likely voters support Mr. Trump,” said Dr. Ken Blake,
director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State University, “but that is more
than enough for him to decisively defeat his opponents and win the state’s 11
electoral college votes.”
Primary vote makes little difference
The
poll also asked registered voter respondents whether they had voted in the
state’s presidential primaries in March, if so for which party, and for whom
they had voted. Only about 7 percent of registered voters say that they voted
for Bernie Sanders in the state’s
Democratic primary. Of these, 61 percent say they would vote for Clinton in the
general election, while 19 percent say they would vote for Johnson, followed by
2 percent for Trump and 0 percent for Stein. The rest say they are undecided or
refuse to answer the question.
About
17 percent of registered voters in the sample say they voted in the Republican
primary for someone other than Trump. Of these, 71 percent say they would vote
for Trump in the general election, followed by 6 percent for Johnson, 4 percent
for Clinton, and 1 percent for Stein. Again, the remainder say they are
undecided or refuse to answer the question.
“Despite
a lot of speculation about party defections from unpopular candidates following
divisive primaries, only small minorities of voters report that they are voting
for someone other than their party’s nominee in the general after voting for a
primary rival,” said Dr. Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll.
Views of candidate qualities more
divided
The
poll also asked several questions about Clinton and Trump’s inclinations to the
presidency. First, registered voters were asked whether they thought each
candidate is capable of doing the job of president.
Forty-nine
percent agree or strongly agree that Trump is able to do the job, while 6
percent neither agree nor disagree, and 42 percent disagree or strongly
disagree. A similar 47 percent agreed or strongly agree that Clinton is able to
do the job, while 5 percent neither agree nor disagree, and 46 percent disagree
or strongly disagree.
Thirty-nine
percent agree or strongly agree that Trump is honest, while 13 percent neither
agree nor disagree, and 42 percent disagree or strongly disagree. Clinton is
evaluated especially poorly on honesty, with only 26 percent saying they agree
or strongly agree that she is honest, 9 percent who neither agree nor disagree,
and 63 percent who disagree or disagree strongly.
But
almost half, 49 percent, agree or strongly agree that Clinton has the
temperament to effectively serve as president, while 5 percent neither agree
nor disagree, and 43 percent disagree or disagree strongly. Forty-one percent
agree or strongly agree that Trump has the temperament to be president, while 8
percent neither agree nor disagree and 48 percent disagree or strongly
disagree.
“Although
Trump easily leads when it comes to vote choice, when it comes to qualities
that matter in a president – competence, integrity, and temperament –
perceptions of the candidates are much more closely divided,” said Reineke,
“But honesty is clearly an issue for Clinton. At the same time, honesty and emotional
control may well be issues for Trump.”
More expect Clinton to win in the end
The
last question about the two major party candidates for president on the poll
asked “Regardless of who you support, and trying to be as objective as
possible, who do you think will win the presidential election this November?” Forty-three
percent of registered Tennessee voters say they expect Clinton to win as
opposed to only 35 percent who say the same about Trump. But a sizable portion
– 21 percent – say they just don’t know who will win at this point.
Methodology
Telephone
interviews for the poll were completed by Issues & Answers Network Inc.
from among a random sample of registered Tennessee voters age 18 and over. Data
were collected using Tennessee statewide voter registration sample of 51 percent
landline and 49 percent cell phones. Quotas by gender and Grand Region were
implemented. Data were weighted based on respondent age to ensure the data represent
Tennessee registered voters. The survey’s overall error margin of 4 percentage
points indicates one can be 95 percent confident that the actual population
figure lies within 4 percentage points (in either direction) of the poll result.
Error margins for subgroups can be larger, depending on the subgroup’s size.
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