Republican
gubernatorial primaries and general-election races look tighter
MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — Marsha Blackburn leads in the Republican U.S.
Senate primary, Karl Dean leads in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and Phil
Bredesen probably would be leading in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary if he
were a declared candidate, the latest MTSU Poll finds.
Meanwhile,
nobody has established a clear lead in the Republican gubernatorial primary or
the general-election races for governor and Senate.
“Some
frontrunners seem to have emerged in some of the primary races, but it’s much
too early to forecast winners, even in the primaries that presently look
lopsided,” said Dr. Ken Blake, director of the poll at Middle Tennessee State
University.
“All
of these candidates have double-digit percentages of undecided voters, both among
voters from their own parties and from across the Tennessee electorate as a
whole. Any of the races easily could shift during the months ahead.”
Here’s
a synopsis of the standings in each race, according to the poll:
·
In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, 55 percent of Republican voters approve or strongly
approve of Blackburn, the representative for Tennessee's 7th Congressional
District. Andy Ogles trails with 19 percent approval, as does Larry Crim, with
12 percent approval. Blackburn’s lead is
statistically significant, given the poll’s error margin among self-identified
Republicans.
·
In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, former Nashville mayor Karl Dean has the approval
of 49 percent of Democrats. The only other Democratic gubernatorial candidate
considered in the poll, Craig Fitzhugh, drew a significantly smaller 26 percent
approval.
·
In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, 60 percent of Democratic voters approve or strongly
approve of Bredesen, a former Tennessee governor. Thirty-two percent express
such approval of Andy Berke, and 28 percent express such approval of James
Mackler. Bredesen’s lead is outside the error margin for the subgroup who self-identified
as Democrats. But while both Bredesen and Berke have said they are thinking of
running, neither man has declared himself a candidate. Mackler was the only
declared Democratic candidate for Senate included in the poll.
·
The Republican gubernatorial primary offers the least clarity for now. Diane Black,
Tennessee’s 6th Congressional District representative, led in the sample with
33 percent approval. But rival Republican Beth Harwell, speaker of the
Tennessee House of Representatives, had the approval of a statistically
indistinguishable 32 percent of the sample. Randy Boyd came in at 28 percent
approval, and Mae Beavers at 21 percent approval. But the poll’s error margin
for self-described Republican voters was too wide to indicate which, if any, of
these candidates was leading the pack. The poll could determine only that Bill
Lee, at 15 percent approval among Republicans, was significantly behind the
approval ratings for Harwell and Black.
·
In the race for Tennessee governor among all
Tennessee voters – Democrats,
Republicans, independents and others – Harwell, a Republican, and Dean, a
Democrat, both attract 23 percent approval, followed closely by three
Republicans: Black, at 22 percent approval; Boyd, at 17 percent approval; and
Beavers, at 15 percent approval. The poll’s overall error margin of 4 percentage
points could not estimate which, if any, of these candidates was ahead. It
could, however, identify the remaining two candidates, Fitzhugh and Lee, as
significantly trailing Harwell, Dean and Black.
·
Finally, in the race for U.S. Senate among all
Tennessee voters, approval for
Blackburn, a Republican, stands at 37 percent, statistically indistinguishable
from approval of Bredesen, a Democrat, at 34 percent. Both polled significantly
higher on approval than did Berke (18 percent), Ogles (14 percent), Mackler (13
percent), and Crim (7 percent).
All
results are based on questions that presented the declared or potential
candidates for each race one at a time, in a random order, and asked whether
the respondent strongly favored, favored, neither favored nor opposed, opposed,
or strongly opposed that person’s being elected. The U.S. Senate results did
not include results for Republican Stephen Fincher, who declared his candidacy
near the end of the poll’s field period and too late to gather meaningful data
about attitudes toward him.
Based
on interviews with 600 registered Tennessee voters reached via randomly
selected cell and landline phone numbers, the scientifically valid poll was
conducted Oct. 16-23 and has an error margin of plus-or-minus 4 percentage
points.
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