MTSU Poll: Nov.
4 vote on Tennessee abortion amendment too close to call
Supporters have slight edge, but many voters still undecided
Supporters have slight edge, but many voters still undecided
MURFREESBORO, Tenn. — A close vote may be in store for Tennessee’s
proposed constitutional amendment on abortion, according to the latest statewide
MTSU Poll.
The
amendment, popularly known as Amendment 1, would specify that Tennessee’s
constitution does not include a right to an abortion. The recent poll of 600 registered
voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, showed the following:
- 39 percent — for
- 32 percent — against
- 15 percent — undecided
- 8 percent — won’t/didn’t vote
- 6 percent — no answer
Early
voting ends Thursday, Oct. 30, for the Nov. 4 election.
“For
many people, the biggest surprises in this part of our poll probably will be just
how close this race is and how important the relatively large number of still
undecided voters are,” said Ken Blake, Ph.D., director of the poll at Middle
Tennessee State University.
The
7-percentage-point lead that supporters hold over opponents “is just a shade
too large to be considered a statistical tie,” Blake said.
“But
the undecideds could swing the outcome either way on election night. Also,
among those who either have voted already or say they definitely plan to vote,
the measure leads 38 percent to 33 percent, a slightly narrower margin that
can’t rule out a statistical tie among members of that group.”
Jason
Reineke, Ph.D., associate director of the poll, added that it is also unclear
whether the amendment will draw a majority of the number of votes cast in the
race for governor, a requirement for passage.
“In
our poll, 214 likely voters said they are in favor of the amendment, while 416
likely voters support a gubernatorial candidate. If we go by those figures
alone, the number of votes in favor of the amendment is equal to 51 percent of
the total number of decided, likely votes in the gubernatorial race,” Reineke
explained. “This would be enough to push the amendment past the 50 percent plus
one vote threshold required by the state constitution, though just barely.”
But
Reineke pointed out that another 74 likely voters in the poll said they’re not
sure whom they prefer in the governor’s race.
“If
even half of the people in the population they represent end up casting a vote
for governor but don’t vote in favor of the amendment, then we get 214 votes in
favor of the amendment compared to 453 governor’s race votes, which
brings
us to only 47 percent. Then there were also 84 likely voters who were not sure
about their position on Amendment 1. So, once again, a lot depends on what
voters who are still undecided at this late date end up doing.”
A ‘Yes on 1’ voters’ strategy?
The
poll found no evidence of widespread plans by amendment supporters to skip
voting in the governor’s race, a strategy some supporters have promoted via
unofficial channels as a way of lowering the required number of votes the
amendment must receive to pass.
In
all, only 3 percent of the poll’s respondents said they planned to cast no vote
at all in the governor’s race.
Familiar with Amendment 1?
About
42 percent of those interviewed said they had heard or read “a lot” about the
amendment, while 44 percent answered “a little,” and 10 percent responded with
“nothing at all.” The rest weren’t sure or gave no answer.
A
subsequent question found that 15 percent thought abortion should be legal in
all cases, 23 percent thought it should be legal in most cases, 25 percent
thought it should be illegal in most cases, and 18 percent thought it should be
illegal in all cases. About 11 percent said they weren’t sure, and the rest
gave no answer.
Demographic differences
Race
emerged as a factor in voting preferences about the amendment, with
significantly more whites favoring the amendment (47 percent) than minorities
(18 percent). Similarly, more men favored the amendment (44 percent) than women
(34 percent). Support also was significantly higher among self-described
evangelical Christians (43 percent) than among those who did not identify
themselves as such (29 percent). Differences in support across age, education
and income were nonsignificant.
About the poll
Conducted
Oct. 22-26 by professional interviewers with Issues & Answers Network Inc.,
the poll completed 600 telephone surveys among a random sample of adult
Tennessee registered voters using a mix of 80 percent landline and 20 percent
cell phones.
Interviewers
read the full text of the amendment to each respondent. Respondents who had
taken part in early voting were then asked whether they had voted for the
amendment, against it or had cast no vote. Respondents who had not yet voted
were asked which choice they would make “if the election were held today.”
This
online, interactive graphic of the results among registered voters and likely
voters as well as by the race, gender and religious preference of registered
voters is available at:
…
as well as on the newly redesigned MTSU Poll website:
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